Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 138.839430 166.075381 199.207549 243.127872 300.824167 3.755099e+02 4.820450e+02
2025-03-23 112.094426 146.168803 192.930502 264.239457 375.011020 5.497601e+02 8.683245e+02
2025-03-30 92.265835 127.302227 179.446932 267.304558 422.346715 7.102931e+02 1.368072e+03
2025-04-06 80.685378 116.437347 173.270499 277.475590 483.584599 9.313079e+02 2.232557e+03
2025-04-13 69.897332 104.163647 161.310420 272.978955 514.616164 1.113304e+03 3.291182e+03
2025-04-20 65.700288 101.471336 164.446033 296.980150 616.921747 1.557540e+03 6.318724e+03
2025-04-27 61.729121 98.304049 165.801277 317.652060 724.012038 2.145437e+03 1.281313e+04
2025-05-04 57.848947 94.562980 165.133821 333.603840 829.727012 2.895320e+03 2.788687e+04
2025-05-11 53.957826 90.149325 162.154267 343.124171 924.148242 3.789831e+03 6.590170e+04
2025-05-18 50.090283 85.203228 157.089493 345.822148 999.575571 4.783372e+03 1.735803e+05
2025-05-25 46.143492 79.581385 149.574607 339.781717 1040.642186 5.701672e+03 4.967168e+05
2025-06-01 42.449994 74.031613 141.341149 329.521458 1060.047429 6.560667e+03 1.776758e+06
2025-06-08 38.830618 68.396963 132.439715 316.168830 1064.858581 7.431999e+03 1.307206e+07
2025-06-15 38.144757 68.747898 137.578514 347.504115 1311.280392 1.270693e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 36.089242 65.942696 134.632567 352.207043 1431.003006 1.765052e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 34.696217 64.402684 134.574539 366.960328 1632.715615 2.812245e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 32.541694 60.943930 129.047675 360.473912 1693.908569 3.654063e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 32.165505 61.432912 133.984969 395.333762 2114.568548 8.565078e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 31.555341 61.307731 137.256714 425.647205 2578.988633 2.311891e+05 NaN
2025-07-27 30.722905 60.561890 138.665444 449.216530 3055.057025 7.627184e+05 NaN
2025-08-03 29.666441 59.163597 137.953779 463.355163 3483.376084 3.334543e+06 NaN
2025-08-10 28.430245 57.204314 135.270126 467.371582 3812.299319 2.397988e+07 NaN
2025-08-17 26.986909 54.605689 130.281278 458.385252 3946.376380 3.280123e+08 NaN